Welcome one and all and thanks for stopping by!
If you are like me, then you like watching your sports with a little something extra on the line.
There are few things more thrilling in life than calling a major upset, hitting the last game of a six team parlay, or going all in.
However, as most seasoned sports bettors and handicappers will tell you, chasing big wins and going for glory is for the birds. . . right?
“If you want to win in the long run,” they say “you have to be disciplined with your bankroll, find an edge or expected value, and avoid exotic plays.”
And from my 7 years of amateur sports betting experience, I can honestly say this is sound advice.
Whenever I have bet disciplined and sought out value, I have profited. But, whenever I have “bet like a square” by making too large of bets that were not warranted or chased that game changing parlay, I have inevitably failed.
Here at value the line, I hope to start you on the path to becoming the best sports bettor or handicapper you can be. In my estimation, there is not just one way to beat the books. Different people are going to employ different strategies based upon the way they think, their comfort level with risk and their familiarity with a specific sport.
I am never going to convince someone who is math phobic or who does not think that way into crunching numbers and analyzing statistics. Contrary to what some would tell you, I don’t believe this automatically means they will lose at sports betting either. What it does mean is that this person will have to bet more selectively and make decisions based on what works for them.
With that being said, there are certain things that all sports bettors and handicappers should know about and employ. I hope to uncover and share those fundamentals with you while expanding my own knowledge-base as well.
By the way, what’s the difference between a sports bettor and sports handicapper you ask? Generally speaking, a sports bettor focuses on the sports betting market to find inefficient lines while a sports handicapper tries to quantify intangibles of injuries, team and player stats and momentum to find value when compared to the betting market. (For a more in depth read on the subject go here)
Since sports betting happens in a market, there are many similarities with the stock market. Grossly speaking, a sports bettor is equivalent to a day trader while a sports handicapper is more like a fundamental trader who focuses on finding the most valuable products and companies.
Who are you?
I am a sports betting enthusiast who believes that gambling should be fun and that enjoyment does not have to come at the expense (literally) of making money.
Some people may disagree with me and believe that sports betting is a “grinding” process and that numbers need to be crunched, statistics calculated and algorithms supplied to “beat the books”.
I agree this is true for those who want to make a living doing this and who are betting large sums of money across a wide array of games. They can not afford to experiment, be selective or leave anything unknown.
But, for the average betting amateur like me, that is not the way I see the game nor how I want to win.
I like to find upsets based on momentum, matchups and the psychology of a players. I believe it is those factors combined with a decent working knowledge of the sports betting market and being able to read public and sharp perception that can tip the scales in our favor.
Now, I realize that not everyone has the same style of betting as I do (there are many ways to beat the books although no way is easy or guaranteed to last!). Therefore, I encourage everyone, if you have not done so, to find your own betting style. Find what works for you and find ways to improve. Hopefully, the content on this site will help you find what you like (and don’t like) about sports betting.
Irrespective of what brought you here, I am glad our paths have crossed.
So, let’s all hone our skills, create our own luck and become the best handicappers and bettors we can possibly be!
May the betting gods be on your side!